THE YEAR THAT WAS/ Air travel to take off as public wealth rises

People's rising income and wealth, as well as their love of flying, will increase the number of air travellers by 500 million, or 25%, by 2010 from this year's estimated tally of two billion. The largest addition within the 2006-10 period will be intra-Asia, where economic and travel growth is particularly strong, at 222 million to 678 million, the largest among all other geographical segments, according to the latest forecast by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
But even the more mature, slower-growing European and US domestic markets will, by virtue of their size, see large numbers of extra passengers wanting to fly over the next four years, said Brian Pearce, the chief economist of the global coalition of 250 airlines.
Key drivers to the growth within Asia are the two emerging economic superpowers, China and India, while the fast-growing markets in Europe are the countries that have recently joined the European Union including Poland and the Czech Republic.
But Mr Pearce warned that the airlines' ability to meet demand would be constrained by a lot of problems, including inadequate airport infrastructure, especially in Europe and many parts of Asia.
Climate impact and environment policies also restrict the aviation industry's ability to respond to future demand.
New budget carriers have also contributed to the growth in economy-class traffic, especially in Europe since 2000, where 29-30% of short-haul seats are now supplied by these airlines.
However, contrary to general belief, there is no evidence that the low-fare traffic stimulated by low-cost carriers (LCCs) has led to a big surge in air traffic.
The study concluded that air travel was rising because of people's growing wealth, not because air travel in any sense was too cheap or growing so fast because of subsidies, or because taxes are too low.
Moreover, business travel markets still have significant growth potential, such as between Europe and Asia.
Boonsong Kositchotethana/Bangkok Post, Thailand

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